EU Readied Counter-Tariffs on the U.S. — What Was Planned and When (July 2025)

What Brussels Approved — The Short Version

In the final week of July 2025, the European Commission and member states signalled that two packages of counter-tariffs were ready in case talks with Washington collapsed. The plan put a first package live on 7 August 2025, with a second package split into September and February tranches. The combined exposure discussed publicly was around €93 billion of U.S. exports. The message: the EU was prepared to retaliate, but preferred a negotiated outcome.

Backgrounder: see our analysis of the 15% tariff ceiling here — “EU Betrayed? Von der Leyen’s 15% Tariff Deal with the US”.

Why Counter-Tariffs Were on the Table

The U.S. signalled sweeping tariff hikes—up to 30% in some scenarios. Brussels prepared “rebalancing” measures to match pressure and keep leverage at the table. In parallel, negotiators explored a compromise that ultimately produced a 15% ceiling on most EU goods exported to the U.S.

Legal Basis: Rebalancing Under WTO Rules

The EU can adopt WTO-compatible rebalancing measures when a trade partner imposes tariffs it deems unjustified. In practice, that means publishing a list of targeted U.S. goods and applying extra duties until a settlement or ruling. Brussels routinely mixes industrial, consumer, and agri-food products to maximise political effect while limiting collateral damage inside the EU.

Timeline — From “Red Button Ready” to the 15% Framework

• July 21–24: Member states push to finalise retaliation tools. Brussels lines up two counter-packages: first effective Aug 7; second in September and February.
• July 27–28: A political understanding takes shape: the U.S. would move to a single 15% tariff ceiling on most EU goods to avert escalation.
• Aug 1 onward: U.S. executive actions and joint statements to implement; EU weighs activating or pausing the counter-lists depending on U.S. follow-through.

Which Products Would Have Been Hit?

The EU did not publish a final line-by-line list during live negotiations. Historically, EU counter-lists balance political visibility (e.g., spirits, iconic consumer goods) with sectors that create negotiating leverage (selected industrial and agri-food lines). The aim is pressure without excessive blowback on EU supply chains.

Triggers — When Would the EU Have Pressed “Go”?

1. Non-implementation: If U.S. measures exceeded agreed parameters → 7 Aug package goes live.
2. Escalation events: New sector tariffs beyond the framework → Sep/Feb tranches deploy.
3. Compliance: If the U.S. followed the framework → packages stay armed but paused.

Sector Notes to Watch

The subsequent EU-U.S. framework indicates that cars and car parts fall under the 15% cap (no quotas), while steel and aluminium remain under separate 50% measures for now. Sensitive areas like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors sit at low/zero duties today but, if U.S. investigations impose new levies, the framework limits the EU rate to ≤15%.

Fix-EU Take

The EU’s counter-tariff machinery wasn’t a bluff—it helped force a ceiling instead of a 30% shock. But a 15% “all-in” cap is still a high price versus pre-dispute baselines. Any pause on retaliation should stay conditional on clear sector carve-outs, explicit timelines, and a sunset so “temporary” security tariffs don’t become permanent protectionism.

Further reading

• Reuters — EU approves counter-tariffs; deal within reach (Jul 24)
• Reuters — US & EU avert trade war with 15% deal (Jul 28)
• FT — EU keeps retaliation in reserve as 15% framework takes shape (Jul 24)